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<br />" 1 . I ,. - <br /> <br />r <br />RWC Water Supply RelIAbility <br />3. ReliabUity: The Water Supply And Demand Balance <br />Comparing the water supply dala shown in Exhibit 1 with the demand data shown in Exhibil 2, it <br />is obvious that RWC is in a high risk, low relii!bililY situation at tile moment RWC !¡as one of <br />the lowest levels of reliability oftl1e BA WUA members. I also believe RW(;: has One of the <br />10weSl levels of water supply reliability in Northern California, although obtaining aCÞurale <br />measures of J:\j1Îabilìty is difficult. As a consequence, I have nol collected benchmarks for <br />comparison al this time. <br />The SFPUC water supply situation will remain unêbanged until at least July 2009 when the <br />existingMa$te¡' Water SalesCon1n,ct and BAWUAI SFPUC Interim Shortage AIJocation Plan <br />expire am! are renegotiated. It is difficult to predict the outcome of the renegotiation¡¡, but it is <br />unlikely that RWC will improve its water supply re1ìàbility fl-om this source. <br />4. Set ecting A Proper Level Of Reliability <br />What ì. the appropriate level of reliability? There is no exact engineering af]$wer, but ratber!be <br />appropriate level is ajudgment call dependent ontbe level of risk RWC is willing to take, and <br />bow mucbRWC is willìngto pay to minìmize this risk. <br />Exhibit 3 graphically shows how water supply reli!lbility increases with water supply additions <br />of 1,000 AFY fOf water con¡¡CI'V~tion and an additionliJ 1,208 for water recycling (priority <br />custom"", 1 and 2 in !beR.1dwood ShoJ!eS area identified by KennedylJenks Consultants, W(Jter <br />Recycling FetUibility Study for Redwcod City, August 2002). <br />Focusing on scenario 3 (SFPUC cutback of 10%), RWC's cutback undercurrent arrangements <br />would be 17.5%. If 1,000 AFY of additional supplies could be obtained via conservation, the <br />cutback would be reduced to 12.4%. With 1,208 AFY of additional supplies from recyçling <br />(2,208 AFY tolll1), the. cutbaék would be. a very manageab!e 6.3%. <br />Readers sbollid nore thatthe feliabilities presented arc for existing watercllstomCJ'S as of FY <br />20001200 1. As shown in BxhiÞìt2, water use is expected II) grow 1,647 AFY over the next 20 <br />years. The thirst of this new gtOwth needs 10 be quencbedfrom new water supplìes if the water <br />re.liabUity of existing customers i. not to decay incrementally. <br /> På¡¡e4 <br />