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Jonathan Hayes - Greystar Updated March 15, 2017 - Page 6 Attachment 1). This factor was provided by BAAQMD for use with their CEQA screening tools that are used to predict cancer risk.4 Based on the General Plan traffic projections, Jefferson Avenue between El Camino Real and Middlefield Road will have a peak-PM volume of 1,990 vehicles per hour.5 Assuming that the peak-hour volume is 10 percent of the average daily volume (a traffic rule of thumb for average daily trips [ADT] estimates), Jefferson Avenue is estimated to have an ADT of 20,000 vehicles. Using BAAQMD’s Roadway Screening Analysis Calculator for a north-south roadway at a distance of 440 feet in San Mateo County, the maximum TAC impacts from this source were estimated: Distance Cancer Risk (per million) Annual PM2.5 (µg/m3) Hazard Index Jefferson St >400 ft East 2.41 0.079 <0.02 Since screening computations for traffic on El Camino Real indicate increases in excess cancer risk at the project dwelling units closest to El Camino Real that would exceed single-source cancer risk thresholds, refined modeling was conducted. Refined modeling tends to predict lower and more accurate results, because project specific information is used in the modeling. This includes roadway orientation with respect to receptors (i.e., where dwelling units would be located with respect to traffic), emission estimates (i.e., based on traffic speeds and traffic mix), and meteorological conditions near the project. The refined analysis involved predicting traffic emissions for the traffic volume and mix of vehicle types on El Camino Real. These emissions were input to a dispersion model to predict exposure to TACs. The associated cancer risk was computed based on the modeled exposures. A review of the traffic information reported by Caltrans indicates that in the vicinity of the project area, El Camino Real has 34,000 ADT, as reported by Caltrans.6 This includes about 2.3 percent trucks, of which 0.7 percent are considered heavy duty trucks and 1.6 percent are medium duty trucks. The analysis involved the development of DPM and organic TAC emissions for traffic on El Camino Real using the CARB EMFAC2014 emission factor model and the traffic mix on El Camino Real, based on the Caltrans traffic data. EMFAC2014 is the most recent version of the California Air Resources Board (CARB) motor vehicle emission factor model. DPM emissions are projected to decrease in the future and are reflected in the EMFAC2014 emissions data. CARB regulations require on-road diesel trucks to be retrofitted with particulate matter controls or replaced to meet 2010 or newer engine standards that have much lower DPM and PM2.5 emissions. This regulation will substantially reduce these emissions between 2013 and 2023. While new trucks and buses will meet strict federal standards, this measure is intended to accelerate the rate at which the fleet either turns over so there are more cleaner vehicles on the road, or retrofitted to meet similar standards. With this regulation, older, more polluting trucks would be removed from the roads sooner. 4 Email from Virginia Lau, BAAQMD to Bill Popenuck, Illingworth & Rodkin, Inc, dated November 15, 2015. 5 Redwood City New General Plan Draft EIR. May 2010. Available online: http://www.redwoodcity.org/phed/planning/eir/pdf/gp/4.14_transportation.pdf. Accessed: February 12, 2015. 6 California Department of Transportation. 2015. 2014 Traffic Volumes on the California State Highway System. 8.A. - Page 89