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<br /> <br />The Effects of a $15 Minimum Wage by 2019 in Santa Clara County and San Jose 9 <br /> <br />LIMITS TO OUR STUDY <br />• Any prospective impact study involves an inherent level of uncertainty. Actual effects may <br />differ from our estimates if future economic conditions vary from current forecasts. <br />• We estimate the net effects on jobs in the city, county and region. The effects will vary for <br />particular industries. <br />• We do not take into account the effects of higher wages on worker health and on worker <br />training, which are likely to be positive. Also, although higher parental earnings have well- <br />documented effects on children’s health, educational outcomes, and future earnings, these <br />long-run effects are beyond the time scope of our study. <br />• These results cannot be generalized to minimum wages higher than $15. Our model predicts <br />additional negative effects would occur at some higher minimum wage. <br />CONCLUSION <br />• Like all forecasts, our results may differ if other economic conditions change. <br />• A $15 countywide minimum wage by 2019 would generate a significant increase in earnings <br />for about 115,000 workers in San Jose and 250,000 workers in Santa Clara County. The <br />improvement in living standards would outweigh the small effect on employment. <br />• How can such a major improvement in living standards occur without adverse employment <br />effects? While a higher minimum wage induces some automation, as well as increased <br />worker productivity and slightly higher prices, it simultaneously increases worker purchasing <br />power. These positive and negative effects on employment largely offset each other. In the <br />end, the impacts of the minimum wage will be employee turnover reductions, productivity <br />increases and modest price increases. <br />8.A. - Page 23