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<br /> <br />The Effects of a $15 Minimum Wage by 2019 in Santa Clara County and San Jose 46 <br /> <br />• For Santa Clara County and nine nearby counties (column 3), we estimate a cumulative <br />net gain in employment, due to the policy, of 60 jobs by 2019, or 0.0 percent of total <br />employment. <br />Scenario B, as scenario A would lead to negligible effect on net employment by 2019 if the <br />benefits of the income effect are fully taken into account. The job losses are greater if the area of <br />study is smaller. <br />Table 11. Scenario A: Cumulative net changes in employment in Santa Clara County <br /> Impacts in Santa <br />Clara County only <br />Additional impact in <br />nine nearby <br />counties <br />Total impact of a $15 <br />MW increase in Santa <br />Clara County and nine <br />nearby counties <br />A. Cumulative reduction in wage bill due to capital-labor substitution and productivity gains <br /> Reduction in number of jobs from substitution effects <br />and productivity gains -2,700 n.a. -2,700 <br />B. Scale effect: Cumulative reduction in consumer spending <br /> Reduction in consumer spending from price increase <br />(billions) -$214 n.a. n.a. <br /> Reduction in number of jobs due to the scale effect -1,120 n.a. n.a. <br /> Reduction in GDP due to the scale effect (millions) -$130 n.a. n.a. <br />C. Income effect: Cumulative increase in consumer demand <br /> Aggregate increase in consumer spending (millions) $602 +$104 $706 <br /> Increase in number of jobs due to the income effect 2,480 +1,410 3,890 <br /> Increase in GDP due to the income effect (millions) $285 +$170 $455 <br />D. Cumulative net change in employment <br /> Net change in employment -1,350 +1,410 60 <br /> Net change in employment, as a percent of total <br />employment -0.1% +0.1% 0.0% <br /> Net change in GDP (in millions) $160 +$170 $330 <br /> Net change in GDP, as a percent of total GDP 0.1% +0.0% 0.1% <br />Source: Authors’ calculations using the regional economic impact model IMPLAN. <br />Note: The nine nearby counties taken into account are: Alameda, San Mateo, San Francisco, Santa Cruz, Monterey, San Benito, <br />Contra Costa, San Joaquin, and Merced. All estimates are in 2019 dollars. <br />8.A. - Page 60