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<br /> <br />The Effects of a $15 Minimum Wage by 2019 in Santa Clara County and San Jose 71 <br /> <br />12.9 percent (respectively 12.9 percent for Santa Clara County), and the GDP deflator in <br />IMPLAN for 2019 (1.039 for both San Jose and Santa Clara County). <br />Share of consumer spending in GDP <br />Our estimate of the share of consumer spending in GDP includes only consumer spending that <br />flows through households. We therefore reduce the BEA’s estimate of the consumption share by <br />14.1 percent. <br />Offsets from benefit reductions and payroll tax increases <br />We estimate that the total offset from reduced EITC to be 0.6 percent, the offset from reduced <br />SNAP benefits to be 4.20 percent, the offset from lower premium tax credits under the ACA to be <br />2.3 percent, and the offset from reduced payroll taxes to be 7.65 percent (the remaining <br />personal income taxes are removed by IMPLAN). These estimates have been calculated using <br />Congressional Budget Office (2012). These results are for the year 2012, and we assume they <br />will remain constant until 2021. <br />Share of in-commuters <br />We use 2014 ACS data to estimate the proportion of affected workers in Santa Clara County who <br />live outside of the county (16.2 percent). However, we are not able to estimate the share of in- <br />commuters for San Jose with ACS data alone because the ACS does not provide place of work <br />data at the city level. LEHD Origin Destination Employment Statistics (LODES) data accessed <br />through the Census Bureau’s On the Map website provides employer location and worker <br />residence data at the city level, but is not as reliable as ACS data because employers’ addresses <br />do not always correspond to a worker’s physical workplace. To estimate the share of in- <br />commuters for San Jose, we therefore first calculate the ratio of the ACS estimate of the share of <br />in-commuters in Santa Clara County to the LODES estimate of the share of in-commuters in <br />Santa Clara County. We then apply that ratio to the LODES estimate to the share of in-commuters <br />in San Jose. <br />8.A. - Page 85