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�l•3-A3 Valuation � Consultation 2033 5 July, 2000 Powell Street Allison Freeman Financial Services Manager San City of Redwood City Box 391 -- francisco Redwood City, California California 94064 94133 Dear Ms. Freeman; P.hone This assessment year the District is essentially built out. With the economic cycle peaking, however, the next major concern is that prices which have increased explosively in the last couple of years may decline 415. just as precipitously. The change in prices is unlikely to be distributed evenly across the residential 433. 0959 properties. There is, as you probably know, a wide variation in housing characteristics within the district. The oldest detached homes being about twenty-five years old, and smallest only a bit more than 1,000 fax square feet. The newest being a year or so old, and the largest are on the order of 3,000 square feet. In the last year price increases have rol led from the newer to the older homes and to the previously neglected 415. condominiums. The reversal of this pattern is anticipated. In 1992 prices in the District were about 20% lower than in 1989. Foreclosures and sales were about equally numerous. Assessment appeals peaked in 982.1441 1992, but went down with the assessments after I revalued in 1993. It is likely that commercial prices have already peaked. For the commercial properties we are already getting improved responsetotheannual incomeandexpensequestionnaire.Asthemarketseriouslysours, then much more appraisal effort will be needed in this area to fend off justified assessment appeals. Another corollary of these factors is that errors in assessment will not be buried under inflationary price changes. The objective of this project in 2001 will be to minimize even further potential errors. A further service that you may be interested in is earthquake damage assessment. I have access to and have been trained in the use of the HAZUS software which is being promoted and disseminated through FEMA. This product allows modeling of both the probable effects of any hypothetical earthquake, and those of any given known earthquake. The results are that you can both plan in advance for the continuity of lifel ines and the provision of emergency services, and also react to disasters when on the spot information may not be available. Part of the module would allow the preparation of emergency loan applications to FEMA, which could either be done based on contingencies or based on an actual event. The FEMA package runs on ArcView or Mapinfo, which are approximately $1,000 pieces of software. HAZUS is free. You might want to look at www.hazus.org. Welcome. I am Fooking forward to working with you. Yours very truly, Charles B. Warren, As� URBAN"REAL PROPERTY __ . _ _ .�.._ � _ _ ,__... ._r_