AgdaPkt 2018-02-12 Joint SA PFA - Laserfiche WebLink

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Chapter 1 x Executive Summary 1-12 Table 1-2: Summary of O&M and Capital Costs Alternative O&M Costs1 (million $) Capital Costs (million $) Alternative 2: Short-Term Enhanced Bus on Highway Bridge (2020) $11.5 $15.3 Alternative 4: Long-Term Enhanced Bus on Highway Bridge with Reversible Express Lanes (2030) $19.6 $1,098.1 Alternative 5: Long-Term Enhanced Bus on Highway Bridge with One Express Lane in Each Direction (2030) $19.8 $1,060.8 Alternative 6: Busway on Rail Bridge (2030) $16.1 $1,221.2 Alternative 7: Rail Shuttle on Rail Bridge (2030) $41.1 $1,756.1 Alternative 8: Rail Commuter Single-Track on Rail Bridge (2030) $37.2 $1,829.9 Alternative 9: Rail Commuter Double-Track on Rail Bridge (2030) $43.4 $1,957.2 Alternative 10: Combination Bus and Rail (2030) Alternatives 5 and 9 $61.5 $2,403.9 1 Baseline transit service costs Source: CDM Smith and HDR Engineering, 2017 1.5 Travel Forecasting To estimate the transportation benefits of the DTCS’s alternatives, the C/CAG-VTA travel demand model was used to project how each alternative would perform in terms of transbay travel, vehicle throughput, total transit ridership, congestion, and other characteristics. Land use, population, and employment assumptions in the model are consistent with the MTC Plan Bay Area Regional Transportation Plan (RTP), known as Transportation 2035. However, some assumptions were modified to match observed growth trends that were not anticipated in the RTP. The model is designed to produce macro-level forecasts for 2020 and 2040, which varies slightly from the established long-term horizon year of 2030. More detail about the travel demand model and results can be found in Chapter 10. All of the transportation alternatives show substantial increases in transit ridership over 2013 conditions. This includes both public service and private shuttle buses operated by major employers. Total transit ridership as shown in Table 1-3 includes trips that use those services to cross the Bay (transbay trips) and trips that remain on one side of the Bay, such as those between the Redwood City Caltrain Station and the planned Willow Road station in Menlo Park. Transbay ridership is shown in Table 1-4. Increasing congestion on the Dumbarton Highway Bridge will continue to erode the effectiveness of transbay transit services that use it. Without any action to increase capacity and efficiency for transit modes, congestion on the Dumbarton Highway Bridge and approaches will reduce its competitiveness. The forecasts predict lower transit ridership in the 2040 No Build scenario than the 2020 No Build scenario. This demonstrates that without the enhancements provided in the bus alternatives, transbay Dumbarton transit service is predicted to degrade significantly between 2020 and 2040 as buses are increasingly delayed in congested conditions. In total, the bus alternatives generate about 25 percent more ridership than the rail alternatives. This is due in part by more frequent bus service: ten-minute peak headways for four different transbay bus routes versus 15-minute headways for the Rail Shuttle (Alternative 7) and 60- minute headways for the Rail Commuter alternatives (Alternatives 8 and 9). In addition, the bus 6.1.D. - Page 21