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construction as part of the Energy Policy Act of 1992. In 1994 the older toilets were no <br />longer manufactured on a national level and ULFT penetration has been increasing since. <br /> <br />Engineering changes have also improved the water and energy efficiency associated with <br />clothes washers. Over the last five years, this efficiency has been associated with <br />horizontal axis washers, although other high-efficiency alternatives are also evolving. A <br />Federal code change has mandated high-efficiency clothes washer be the only product <br />sold by 2007. <br /> <br />Appendix B shows the residential water use coefficients, as well as the estimated <br />penetration rates and water savings associated with ULFTs and high-efficiency clothes <br />washers for the residential sectors. The current penetration rates are estimated from a <br />water conservation baseline penetration study recently completed by East Bay Municipal <br />Water District (2001). Future penetration rates are based on expected natural rates of <br />replacement. RWC could accelerate these replacement rates via water conservation <br />programs and incentives. RWC is currently participating in a high-efficiency washer <br />rebate program through the Bay Area Water Users Association. This acceleration is not <br />factored into the base water use forecasts generated in this study. It is included in <br />sensitivity analyses described in Section 5. <br /> <br />Appendix C shows estimated water savings associated with ULFT installation at <br />commercial sites. It shows the universe of toilets installed at commercial sites within the <br />city as of 1992, along with water savings and penetration rate assumptions. <br /> <br />4. Water Use Forecasts <br /> <br />Water use forecasts are generated for a given year by multiplying the relevant data driver <br />by its water use coefficient. Appendix D shows the results. These forecasts should be <br />interpreted as expected "normal" year forecasts. Weather, pricing, water-use <br />intensification, conservation, and data driver variations can alter these expected values as <br />discussed in the next section. <br /> <br />Water forecasts are developed by sector. They are comprised of sub-forecasts made for: <br /> <br /> · existing users as of 2000 <br /> · new users after 2000, and <br /> · water conservation occurring from natural replacement of water fixtures. <br /> <br />For existing users, the forecasts assume that the indoor and outdoor water use patterns <br />experienced in 2000 will remain constant, except for the explicit accounting for water <br />conservation occurring from natural replacement of water fixtures. For new single-family <br />customers, the 2000 water use coefficients are used as derived from homes built between <br />1993-2000 as they are deemed to be the most representative of the future. For the new <br />multiple family customers, we use the coefficients associated with sites with over 25 <br />dwelling units; most if not all new multiple family growth is expected by the RWC <br />Planning Department to be large-scale projects. <br /> <br /> P~e6 <br /> <br /> <br />