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RWC Water Supply Reliabilit~ <br /> <br /> ca 7.6% chance of a 17.5% cutback--this would entail a major "event" requiring water <br /> conservation and rationing. <br /> <br /> ra 2.5% chance of a 28.4% eutbeck--this would be a "dramatic" event involving major <br /> disruptions with customers. <br /> <br />The probabilities developed in the SFPUC master plan relate to water demands exhibited in <br />about the FY 1998/99 and FY 1999/2000 period. As members of BAWUA use more water in the <br />furore, the frequency and magnitude of the cutbacks will increase. In fact, BAWUA's water use <br />has increased in the last few years and is projected to increase over time out to at least 2030 <br />(BAWUA ,An_~n.~ml Sur~/~y of. Resu~ 2000-01, December 2001). The last column of Exhibit 1 <br />shows an estimate of th~. ~.de~i~ water supply reliability for the year 2010. The fi'equency <br />of euthacks equal to or exceeding 17.5% will grow from 10.1% to 16.4% over this period. It is <br />also anticipated that cutbacks will be of greater magnitude. <br /> <br />2. RWC Water Demand <br /> <br />Future water demands for RWC are quantified and described in the report titled Redwood City <br />Water Use Forecast 2000 to 2020, submitted to RWC by John B. Whitcumb, Phi), June 20, <br />2002. The forecasts are also included in the RWC Urban Water Management Plan. The bottom <br />line water use forecasts are reproduced in Exhibit 2. <br /> <br />Exhibit 2. RWC Water Demand Forecast, Acre Feet per Year (1) <br /> <br /> Forecast Year <br /> Actual <br /> 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 <br /> 13,170 13,467 14,191 14,590 14,817 <br /> <br />(1) Forecasts include 4% unaccounted-for water rate and passive conservation resulting from <br />natural rcplaccmcnt of toilets and clothes washers with more efficient models. They do not <br />include active conservation or water substitution resulting from using recycled water for <br />irrigation. <br /> <br /> Page 3 <br /> <br /> <br />