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8.A. - Page 11 of 72 Redwood City -South San Francisco Metropolitan District was 1.8 percent, down from 1.9 percent in November 2019 and below the December 2018 rate of 2.1 percent. This is essentially full employment. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Western Information Office, wages and salaries for the San Jose -San Francisco -Oakland area for the 12 -month period ended September 2019 advanced at a rate of 2.9 percent, as compared to 3 percent for the nation for the same period. Between December 2017 and December 2018, the total number of jobs in the area increased by 2.5 percent, or 28,900 jobs. The Bay Area economy is ranked nineteenth in the world with a GDP of $748 billion. At $74,815, the Bay Area has the highest GDP per capita in the United States and ranks ahead of global peers such as London ($56,997) and Singapore ($43,867). According to the siliconvalleyindicators.org, in the Silicon Valley region (Santa Clara and San Mateo counties), the median household income was $125,987 in 2018 (latest available numbers). California overall had a median income of $75,277, while the nationwide median household income was $61,937. The per capita income in Silicon Valley was $113,141, compared to $63,557 for California, and $54,446 nationwide. According to the BLS, the average annual spending on housing (rent and mortgage) in the San Francisco area is over 39.4 percent, compared to the national average of 33.0 percent. Of the 22 major metropolitan areas cited in the BLS data, this average annual spending percentage is the highest, exceeding New York and Honolulu. The median home price in Redwood City is $1.5 million, and average monthly rent is approximately $3,500. According to the DataUSA, as of 2018, the owner -occupied housing rate was 60.5 percent, compared to the national average of 63.9 percent. In the Bay Area, domestic migration has turned increasingly negative since 2013. During 2018, total domestic migration decreased population by just over forty thousand people. Economist Steven Levy attributes this movement to the high housing prices forcing some residents to leave the region. It should be noted that, while overall net migration to the Bay Area remains positive (due primarily to foreign immigration), the rate of positive migration has been declining since 2013. While the San Francisco Bay Area economy remains strong, there is concern that the soaring costs of housing are threatening the area's economic diversity as more and more people leave the region. For these reasons, it is important for the City to take a forward -thinking, long-term approach to mitigating the City's financial liabilities and proactively prepare for future recessionary impacts that loom on the horizon. PRELIMINARY TEN-YEAR GENERAL FUND FORECAST The Preliminary Ten -Year General Fund Forecast is included as Attachment 1. Major factors contributing towards the forecast are detailed below. Staff is working closely with the City's revenue consultants on possible recessionary factors and is keeping abreast of any changes that may occur. This forecast will be refined by staff over the next few months as more information is known, and an update will be included with the FY 2020-21 Recommended Budget. Page 11 of 26 City of Redwood City 1017 Middlefield Road, Redwood City, CA. 94063 Tel: 650-780-7000 www.redwoodcity.ore 246