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8B <br /> Page 1 <br /> �� <br /> C1TY COUNCiI MEMBER REPORT OF CONFERENCE/MEETfNG ATTENDANCE <br /> Name: Barbara Pierce Vendor No.: <br /> C>epartment: City Council Voucher No.: <br /> Responsible Standing Committee: ABAG - Association af Bay Area Govemments <br /> Conference or meeting: ABAG Bay Area Economic Outloak, January 24, 2008 <br /> Summary of cQnferer�ce or meeting: <br /> Just a Bump in the Road? Bay Area Eeonomic Dutlook provided an opportunity to hear from Howard Rath, <br /> Chief Economic of the Catifornia Department of Finance regarding Califomia's economy in the future; Paul <br /> fassinger, Research Di�ector of the Association of Bay Area Gavemments comparing the regiona{ <br /> ecanomic future to the state and nafionai indicators; Hing Wong, Senior Regianal Planner ABAG sharing <br /> county by county taxable sale forecasts; and Geraid Cox, marketing Manager of Fteal�acts looking at <br /> current trends in #he residential rea{ estat� martcet in the Bay Area versus Califomia. Below are some key <br /> fa�ts from each of the preser�ters. <br /> Howard Roth, Chief Economic of the Califomia Department of Finance: OveraA the tor�e was quite somber, <br /> nationally, statewide and regfonafiy. The f�recast is that 20Q8 wilt be a weak year for the state and nation. <br /> The best case is that the eca�►►omic growth will stabilize at a iow tevel at year-end, with a risk af recession <br /> cansiderabty increased. Majar risks are i# the hausing sector downtums tum out ta be warse than expected <br /> and higher energy prices are seen. Jobs growth has slowed; Califomia personal income is slight{y down <br /> from tast few years; housing permits have tumbled to a loav since 1591; foreclosures have spiked higher <br /> #han in the last high af 1998; and new business incorporations are in ihe negative (the last time this <br /> happened was 2001). Upshot is that we're in for some rough #imes at the state level, with impacts on <br /> residents and locai govemments. <br /> Paut Fassinger, Research Director of tfie Assaciation of Say Area Govemments: The picture in the Bay <br /> Atea is slighqy less glum tttan at tt►e siate levet. Bay area expectations: slaw job growth; potenUal rec:ession <br /> in 2008 with improvement in 20Q9; incflmes expected to grow no more #han inflation; Bay Area employment <br /> continued ta rise slowly in 2007, but not at the rate it did in 2006.1'he Laba� fofce in San Francisco Bay <br /> area grqwing in the pro#essional and business seryice$, education and heaith services, leisure and .._.. <br /> hospitality and govemrr�eM. Median home price has dropped slightly but not significantly due to pent up <br /> demand however defaults have jumped. En the 3"' quarter of 2D07 caunties with highest ciefault notices <br /> were: Contra Costa - 3246; Afameda — 2126; Santa Clara —1655; Sonoma -749; San Mateo - 581. Homes <br /> are selling more slowly. Retail sates took a dip in Navember and December. Mr. Fassinger's o�nclusions <br /> were that the Bay area wrcwki mirror ikie nation but our expe�tations are for a relatively mild c�ndidon_ <br /> Energy prices, mortgage industry and state budget wiN continue ta cause concems. <br />