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8.A. - Page 42 of 104 A vaccine for COVID-19 is not expected to be available to most Americans until the summer or autumn of 2021,2 and the degree of effectiveness of such a vaccine remains undetermined, particularly if the virus mutates over time. The length of vaccine effectiveness is anticipated to be approximately one year.' Between now and then, the combination of regular flu season health impacts and increased indoor activity as temperatures fall this winter is expected to cause a significant increase in the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths nationwide. The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has projected a forecast into February 2021, predicting a total of nearly 400,000 U.S. deaths from COVID-19, with a national average daily death rate of approximately 2,200, by early February. To see resuhs within this c ... l select a subnational local Total deaths Daily deaths lnfeclions and testing Hospdal resource use Mask use Social distancing Daily deaths LTrodd LCompare ®M„ Daily deaths is the best indicator of the progression of the pandemic, although there is generally a 17-21 day lag between in(eclian and deaths Scenario O Today fik- — S.Sk- 5k February 01, 2021 • P jetted Mantlates easing• 5.218.55 fa 25399-X819.58) l5k I Cwrenl l2,232 59 (1,932.82-2568.55) 3k I NnMersat masks' 149294(!94.22-1,92732) m 25k- ❑ • . 2k - ISk- k _ •� 5a0 o, Mffi 20 Apr 20 mw- Jun 2e JN 20 Aug'PO Sep 20 Od 29 K. 29 Pec 2D Jan 21 FeG'�1 Date observed (smoothed) --- Current projection --- Mandates easing --- universal masks AV deathsspevfic ro COVJf 19p f.,& The IHME model predicts California's daily death rate will increase from its current level of 76 to more than 400 daily deaths by late January to early February, assuming mask wearing and social distancing practices continued at current levels; however, with easing of mandates that figure is predicted to as much as double by February. z September 2020 Senate testimony by Dr. Robert R. Redfield, Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; and October 6, 2020 statements at American University by Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. 3 https://di rectorsblog.nih.gov/2020/09/29/study-finds-people-have-short-lived-immunity-to-seasonal-coronaviruses/ X BUDGET MESSAGE 111