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AgdaPkt 2021.04.26 Joint SA FPA
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AgdaPkt 2021.04.26 Joint SA FPA
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4/27/2021 9:23:20 AM
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CC Index
CC Index - Document Type
Agenda Packet
Meeting Type
Joint
Agency Type
City Council and Successor Agency and Public Financing Authority
Date
4/26/2021
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6.A. - Page 14 of 49 <br />REDWOOD CITY <br />Investment Strategy Outlook <br />For the Quarter Ended December 31, 2020 <br />As 2020 ends, the uncertainties of 2021 now come into focus. Significant central bank intervention is expected to continue, and <br />we expect interest rates will remain low for the foreseeable future. The speed of vaccine rollouts will ultimately drive the pace of <br />the anticipated "return to normalcy." Considering the economic uncertainties that remain, we plan on maintaining the portfolio's <br />neutral duration position relative to the benchmark. <br />Our outlook for major investment-grade sectors includes the following: <br />Outlook <br />Agencies: Strong demand for agency bonds has pushed incremental yield spreads in basis points down to single digits. <br />While the portfolio currently includes larger allocations relative to prior years when spreads were consistently tight to <br />similar -duration treasuries, in 2021 agency strategy will likely include reduced holdings of shorter maturities where spreads <br />may be narrower while continued participation in attractive longer new issues. <br />Agency MBS: The combination of the 10 -year Treasury yield near 1 %, securities trading at a premium, and elevated <br />refinancing activity creates challenges for the MBS sector. As a result, attractive investment opportunities may be limited. <br />Like in other sectors, however, the portfolio's allocation will be maintained as MBS can provide incremental income and <br />diversification benefits. <br />Supranationals: Due to narrow yield spreads, expectations for new purchases are tempered in 2021. However, we remain <br />on the lookout for opportunities to add income relative to Treasuries and agencies, especially if issuance picks up in the <br />first quarter of 2021 as forecasted. <br />Taxable Municipals: We continue to find value in the sector. As a result, we will continue to participate in new high-quality <br />issues and increase the portfolio's allocation while the sector remains attractive. Additional fiscal stimulus targeted to state <br />and local governments would be a big credit positive should it occur under the new federal administration. <br />Corporates: Continued economic recovery, vaccine rollouts, and supportive monetary policies around the world serve as <br />primary tailwinds. Due to incremental income potential, corporates will remain a core, long-term holding. We may look to <br />add to the sector should spreads widen, however, this may be challenging, as market demand seems insatiable while <br />issuance is expected to fall from the record new supply seen in 2020. <br />Asset -Backed Securities (ABS): ABS spreads are on the tighter side of their historical ranges. However, demand for ABS <br />remains elevated as investors look for income return in high-quality sectors. New issuance is expected to be strong in <br />2021, and we will likely seek opportunities to purchase new, attractively -yielding AAA -rated issues to boost portfolio <br />income -earning potential. <br />PFM Asset Management LLC <br />22 <br />
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