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Given the City's forecasted water demand and projections of water supply availability provided by the SFPUC, the City anticipates the need to implement water use reductions of up to 48% in consecutive dry year scenarios post implementation of the Bay Delta Plan Amendment. , as projected by the SFPUC under its 8.5- year Design Drought planning model. The Design Drought is a hypothetical drought sequence developed by the SFPUC for system-modeling purposes; the SFPUC's own Long-Term Vulnerability Assessment, which incorporated 100 years of observed data, 1,100 years of tree-ring reconstructions, and 25,000 simulated runs, did not produce a drought of equivalent severity. Other large California water agencies, including Valley Water and EBMUD, plan against the drought of record (1987–1992); under that planning standard the City would not anticipate mandatory rationing in a five consecutive dry-year sequence. Staff presents the SFPUC figure for regulatory completeness and the comparative context for transparency. During the drought that occurred in 2012–2016 (2015 drought), the City was able to reduce water use by 31% by restricting landscape irrigation to two times per week as well as a number of other measures. This was followed by the drought that occurred in 2020–2023 (2021 drought) during which the City reduced water use by 15% in response to voluntary water reductions measures. Editor's note — The current paragraph presents "up to 48%" as a single planning figure without telling the reader that it derives from one SFPUC modeling scenario (the Design Drought). Staff itself has noted (Item 4 staff report, p. 6, fn. 7) that the projected 31–48% wholesale cutbacks exceed the 20% threshold under which the Tier 2 Drought Response Implementation Plan applies, so the Tier 2 Plan cannot govern allocation in the scenario the UWMP describes. Adding the proposed sentence keeps SFPUC's number in place while making clear it is one scenario among several. This also responds to the Commissioner request, recorded on p. 9 of the staff report, to alter the UWMP language to indicate the City's view of SFPUC's reliability projections and Design Drought. ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── Edit 2 — Section 6, Table 20 (p. 93) Subject: add a Finance Bureau sensitivity row beneath the Water Enterprise (UWMP) projections. Existing draft text and table (verbatim, UWMP pp. 92–93): Table 19 shows the availability of RWS supplies for the SFPUC's retail Customers and wholesale customers in normal years. Table 20 shows the current and projected RWS supply needs to meet retail and wholesale customer demands based on information and projections presented in the SFPUC's 2025 UWMP. Table 20 (existing, unchanged in the proposal): RWS Supply Allocation 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Retail Customers (a)(b) 62.7 61.2 61.9 64.0 66.7 Wholesale Customers (c)(d) 133.92 136.32 140.53 144.12 148.36 Total RWS 196.62 197.52 202.43 208.12 215.10