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3 " a 3� DRAFT URBAN WATER MANAGEMENT PLAN <br />Figure 3.1 shows how passive conservation, active conservation, and water recycling can <br />incrementally reduce the City's water demands over time to be closer to the water <br />supplies available from SFPUC during times of shortage. The "SFPUC Max Supply 10% <br />Risk" line represents the maximum water available from the SFPUC with 10 percent <br />probability (e.g., in 1 out of 10 years the City can expect to get this amount or less). <br />Figure 3.1 Water Demand and Supply Balance <br />19, W <br />15,M <br />14.= <br />13.= <br />T <br />x <br />e <br />Y <br />11,W0 <br />19.aoo <br />9A00 <br />9,000 <br />1 <br />Figure 3.2 redisplays Figure 3.1 information with a focus on the water deficit between the <br />SFPUC water supplies at 10% risk and three water demand scenarios. The top line shows <br />that the water deficit if the City takes no action (this includes only passive conservation) <br />will grow from the current 17.5% to over 35% in 2020. If the City executes the entire <br />BMP implementation plan identified in Chapter 1, the deficit would diminish to 16% in <br />2005 and would grow again to 33% by 2020. If the City executes active conservation and <br />constructs the expanded water recycling system, the deficit would diminish to 7% in 2007 <br />and would be only 22% in 2020. <br />This analysis shows that only by implementing a combination of conservation and water <br />recycling can the City bring its water supply /demand balance into a reasonable level of <br />risk, within the next five to seven years. <br />24 <br />2010 2020 <br />