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amoral average tamperaure did notvary by more than I'F from its average of 70.3 and } <br />never had a difference greater than 3 Although greater differ -aces are experienced on <br />a month -to -month basis, they tend to average out over the year. ?his.stab$ity creates <br />stability in ammal water demand. Exhibit S plots temperature against monthly water use <br />over 1975 to 2001. Water use and temperature we highly correlated. <br />Annual rainfall, in contrast, is much more variable. However, taier tends to fall in the <br />winter and early springmonths when tempetannes and irrigation demands are relatively <br />low. Hence, rainfall variability does not tend to greatly impact ammtal water demands. <br />Rainfall has a much bigger impact on water supply (Hatch Hereby) than demand <br />Our model correlating water use with weather was specified to measure the deviations in <br />water use (as shown in Exhibit 5) from deviations in normal temperature and rain511 as <br />follows: <br />It <br />WATERt= atxMON771 4t +,B1xTEMPDEi't +82xIUMEVt <br />where, <br />WATERt =ratio of water use in month t to a 12 -month moving average of WATERt <br />MO=t,t = binary variable creating one unique a intercept for each calendar month <br />TTiMPDEVt — temperature deviation im month t Fran the average for that month ('F) <br />RAINDEVt = rainfall deviation in month t from the average for that month (inches) <br />ai, fll,,62 - coefficients estimated cuing least squares regression <br />After estimating the model, we used aewal weather data from 1949 to 2001 to simulate <br />the maximum impacts on anmusl water rise. From this exercise, we determine that water <br />use can be expected to vary +1- 2 percent from weather alone on animal basis. <br />t <br />Page 8 <br />1 <br />