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�.I C -32 <br />RWC Water Supply Reliabinty <br />0 7.6% chance of a 173 %cutback -41tis would =tail a major ° evele requiring water <br />conservation and rationing. <br />0 2.5% chance of a 28.4% cutback —this would be a "dramatic" event involving major <br />disruptions with customers. <br />The probabilities developed in the SFPUC mast plan relate to water demands exhibited in <br />about the FY 1998/99 and FY 19992000 period. As members ofBAWUA use mere water in the <br />future, the frequency and magnitude of the cutbacks will increase In fact, BAWUA's water use <br />has increased in the last few years and is projected to increase over time out at least 2030 <br />(BAWUA Annual Survey of Results FY 2000.01, December 2001). The last column of Exhibit 1 <br />shows an estimate ofthe degradation in water supply reliability for the year 2010. The frequency <br />of cutbacks equal to or exceeding 17.5% will grow from 10.1°x6 to 16.4% over this period. It is <br />also anticipated that cutbacks will be of greater magnitude. <br />2. RWC Water Demand <br />Future water demands for RWC are quantified and described in the reporttitled Redwood City <br />Water Use Forecast 2000 to 2020, submitted to RWC by John B. Whitcomb, PhD, June 20, <br />2002. The forecasts are also included in the RWC Urban Water Management Plan. The bottom <br />Iine water use forecasts are reproduced in Exhibit 2. <br />F,xhibit 2. RWC Water Demand Forecast, Acre Feet per Year (1) <br />Forecast Year <br />Actual <br />2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 <br />13,170 13,467 14,191 14,590 14,817 <br />(1) Forecasts include 4% unaccounted -for water rate and passive conservation resulting from <br />natural replacement of toilets and clothes washets with more efficient models. They do not <br />include active conservation or water substitution resulting from using recycled water for <br />irrigation. <br />Pate 3 <br />