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<br /> _,"___'1"'4<1>J"""".''''V\"Wff<><;:'O/';",Y'' ')' ','i,e,'O"". '.'';,' ,'., ''IT',y '. <br /> I 5.\C-\9 <br /> 1. Objective and Approach <br /> The objective of the reI>>"larch described in this report is to develop water use forecasts for <br /> the City of Redwood Cit)' (RWC) for thc2()-year period 2000 to 2020, The resulting <br /> water use forecasts C8DllSSistR.WC with a variety of ~ plJ)Y1ftil'l& decisiODSlfunctions, <br /> including supporting the decisio~ ,process underlyiDgconstruction ofwatcr <br /> m:ycling facilities in the Redwood Shores area. <br /> A variety ofmethod$arc available to forecast water use. There II'Cl pto$'and CODS <br /> associated with each, and data availability is often an impprtant selection detcnninant. <br /> Previously, R.WChaS used simplecxttapolation methods for waterllSC f~ting. This <br /> approa.ch has minimal data and analytic requirements, but an cxtrapOlation of the past is <br /> not necessarily the best predictor of the tbture. <br /> Because RWC has availablescveraI key so~ of information regarding future drivCfS <br /> of water use (e.g., housing units and employment), itia logical to make use orthis <br /> infunnation as is done vi" the following single variilblc model: <br /> WATBR.,t = DRlVBR.,,l- COEFFICIENTS,! <br /> where <br /> WATER.,t = water useaf sector s in time t <br /> DRlVE~,l - data driver of sector s in time t <br /> COEFFICIENT", ~ water use per driver coefficient of sector s in time t <br /> In RWC's case there II'Cl seven sectors identified. in thcbilling system as follows: <br /> . single family residential <br /> . multiple family residential <br /> . commen:ial <br /> . commerciallrrigation <br /> . government <br /> . other <br /> . residential irrigation <br /> As described in Section 2, the data driVCl'$ are number of housing units for the residential <br /> sectors, lJUl11bcr of employees for the commercial sectors. and population for the other <br /> sectors. Section 3 describes the development of the coefficients that arc based on <br /> historical water use c:orrdations, as potentially adjusted for weather, water prices, and <br /> expected water conservation transformations. Once the data drivers and their associated <br /> coefficients are identified, water use forecasts over a 2O.year period are developed as <br /> described in Section 4. Lastly, Section S desaribcs sensitivity analyses of the water use <br /> forecasts to underlying assumptions. <br /> Page 3 <br /> r <br /> 1 <br /> , - <br /> "",,,,,,,,,,_,,,~W""~"""' <br />