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<br /> - <br /> =...... " ,e'=", '0' ,~,~^ <br /> ,''''- 5 . \ c..- J...\ <br /> I <br /> 3.1 Weather <br /> In water use forecasting, it is typical to "weather nonna1i.zc" base year water '"~ Water <br /> use tends to increase with hat, &yweathcr and~e with cool, wet weather Hence, it <br /> is important to adjust for abnonnal weather pattcr1lS in order to cSmblish an unbiased <br /> starting point for the forecasts. <br /> We collected monthly rain and daily lIlllXimllm temperature data ftom the Natinnal <br /> Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration for the .Redwood City weather station over the <br /> period 1948 to date. Our analysis ofthi$ data shows that weather dmins 1he calendar year <br /> 2000 was closer to normal thsnany other year in 1he series. This simplifies the weather <br /> normalization task as the 2000 water use data are already effectively weather nonnaliz.cd. <br /> The annual weather values for 2000 and nonnal are shownin,Exhibit 4. <br /> Exhlliit 4. Weather for year 2000 <br /> Desl!rlotioll 1000 Normal <br /> Annual Rain (inches) 19.57 20.21 <br /> Almual Average of Daily Max <br /> Tem ~ tDF'l 71.0 71.3 <br /> 3.2 Water Prices <br /> Changes in water prices are also known to change customers' behavioral decisions <br /> regatdingwamr use. Following the first law in economic demand theory, as the real price <br /> of a commodity increases, the quantity demanded by consum.ersdccreases. <br /> A review ofR-We water prices shows they bavercmained relatively stable over recent <br /> years after adjusting for intlation. This finding of rate stability again simplifies the <br /> analysis as there is no need to make watQr price adjustments to base year water use. <br /> Appendix E tQlltains the 2002 water price scbedule. <br /> 33 Water Conservation Technologies <br /> Water fixtures have tended to become more water efficient over time because of <br /> improvements in water conservation technologies. In this study, we spc:citicaUy llCCOWlt <br /> for known water using efficiencies occuning witbtoilcts and clotbes washers. These are <br /> the two largest end uses of indoor residential water llSC, making up about half oftatal use. <br /> Toilet manufactures came out with 1.6 gallon per flush toilets, known as ultra-low flush <br /> toilets or ULFTs, in 1989. Toilets before this time used 3.5 gallon per flusb'ot more. In <br /> January 1992. a California Plumbing Code cbange required all new toiletS to be ULFTs. <br /> Many older,less-efficient toilets were still being sold. OOwever, at this time. A Federal <br /> plumbing code change effec:tive January 19941I1lU1dated ULFTs be used in all new <br /> Page 5 <br /> ,">'"~''^'''''''''<''' I:"',......-..:~.._..... <br />