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, . --"'- c.- I 5. \ C - 3.3 Rwe Water Sl1pply Re1labllit)' Q 7.6% chance of a 17.5% cutback-this would enuail a major "event" requiring water conservation and rationing. IJ 2.5% chance ola 28.4% cutba~-this would be a "dramatic.. event involviDi major disruptions with customers. Th~ probabilities developed in the SFPUC mastcrpIan relate to water demands exhibited in about the FY 1998/99 and FY 199912000 period. AS members ofBA WUA use more water in the future, the frequency and magnitude of the cutbacks will increase. In fact, BA WUA 's water use bas increased in the last few years and is projected to incrcaseovcr time out to at least 2030 (BAWUA Annual Survey ofRcsults FY 2000-01, Dccember20pl). The last colwnn of Exhibit ] shows an estimate of tbedegradation in mter supply reliability for the year 20]0. The frequency of cutbacks equal to or exceeding 17.5% will grow from 10.1% to 16.4% over this period. It is also anticipated that cutbaclawiD' be of gn:atcr magnitude. 2. RWC Water Demand Future waterdemandsfot RWe are quantifiedanddescribcd in the report titled Redwood City Water Use Forecast 2000 to 2020, submitted toRWC by John B. Whitcomb, PhD, June 20, 2002. The forecasts are als<> included in tbeRWC Urban Water Management Plan. The bottom line water use forecasts are reproduced in Exhibit 2. Exhibit 2. awe Water Demand Foruast, Acre Feet per Year (1) Foreca~t Year Actual 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 13,170 13,467 14,19] 14,590 14,817 (I) Forecasts include 4% unaccounted-for water rate and pa~sivc conservation resulting from natural rcplacementoftoilets and clothes washers with more efficient modelS. They do not include active conservation or water substitution resulting from using rcoycled water for irrigation. Page) . .~- "pn-'., .... ~;.,w ._.".,_"_.,_.,,