AgdaPkt 2004-11-08 - Laserfiche WebLink

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1-. A -2 Redwood City staff, with assistance from consultant John Whitcomb and BAWSCA staff, has spent considerable time analyzing the SFPUC's forecast model and base assumptions on conservation and, in general, the end forecast results for 2030 appear reasonably achievable for Redwood City, recognizing that estimates for future purchases from the SFPUC cannot be exact at this time. Additionally, there are significant unknowns, including costs for future water, uncertain reliability of the future regional supply, and other contractual needs and commitments that mayor may not be agreed to when the current Master Sales Agreement expires in 2010. Staff has concurred with the estimates for the first two objectives: 1) Redwood City's total demand projection for 2030, including the plumbing code, is estimated at 13.40 MGD; and 2) The potential conservation range of 4.4% to 7.6%, using the mid-point of 0.80 MGD. Additionally, Redwood City intends to implement a water recycling project, with the goal of creating a minimum of 1.5 MGD of new water supply. In order for the project to be constructed the City Council must first: a) adopt a project financing plan; b) adopt water rate increases to pay for recycled water facilities; c) adopt water pricing policies; and d) authorize the sale of revenue bonds for the purpose of project financing. Action of these four items is anticipated by Jan. 2005. Therefore, staff recommends that for San Francisco's planning purposes, a range of 11.6 to 12.6 MGD, or 12,969 to 14,107 AF/yr is a reasonable "Best Estimate" for Redwood City's water needs in 2030. The attached summary provides the basis for calculating the amount of the estimate. Alternatives 1. Submit to San Francisco a higher estimated amount of water for 2030. The City Council has set a policy of "active" water conservation as delineated in the adopted UWMP. As such, if there are challenges to the adequacy of conservation efforts within the service area of the Hetch Hetchy Regional Water System shown in the SFPUC's PEIR, Council policy and the "Best Estimate" will likely be in conflict. 2. Submit to San Francisco a lower estimated amount of water for 2030. The recommended "Best Estimate" could be submitted excluding any recycled water offset to the demand for drinking water from the Hetch Hetchy Regional Water System. City Council policy direction for the Recycled Water Project to date has been affirmative; however, the policy threshold of a "funded, committed project" has not yet been reached. Until the Council considers - and acts on - a project financing plan with long-term water pricing and rate increases to pay for it, the status of the Project could be considered to be in a final planning phase, for the purpose of San Francisco's planning process ahead. Fiscal Impact Submittal of the "Best Estimate" to San Francisco for planning purposes at this time does not commit Redwood City to any changes in future quantity of water to be purchased and/or pricing of future water. Therefore, there is no direct, long-term fiscal impact associated with water purchases as a result of this San Francisco planning effort. However, if the SFPUC CIP is successfully implemented, wholesale water rates are now projected to increase from the current rate of $1.13 per unit to $3.19 per unit by 2015, a 282% increase. Page 2 of 3