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8.D. - Page 48 The projected business-as-usual GHG emissions are based on the emissions from the existing growth pattern and general plan prior to the adoption of this climate action plan. More specifically, business-as-usual emissions would occur if the City of Redwood City were to continue its 2005 patterns of travel, energy and water consumption, and waste generation and disposal. Therefore, the business-as-usual emissions are projected in the absence of any mitigation measures, policies or actions that would reduce emissions over time, including landmark state legislation described in section 1.3. Programs, policies, and measures implemented after 2005 are considered beyond business-as-usual. The projections from the baseline year of 2005 uses growth factors specific to each of the different economic sectors. Error! Reference source not found. and 7 below summarizes the results of the forecast. Table 5: Redwood City "Business as Usual" Emissions Forecast for 2020 2005 2020 Annual Percent Emissions Sources �MTCOZ) (MTCOZ) Growth Rate change from 2005 to 2020 Residential 99,144 111,421 0.78% 12.4% Commercial/Industrial 218,352 254,541 1.03% 16.6% Transportation 329,291 384,802 1.04% 16.9% Waste 22,406 25,181 0.78% 12.4% Ag Emissions 594 594 0.00% 0.0% TOTAL 669,787 775,946 0.99% 15.8% We projected the emissions forecast for each sector, because specific factors affect each sector differently (e.g. new building energy codes or new fuel economy standards for vehicles). This approach provides a better approximation of future emissions. The following points explain how the emissions forecast was estimated for each sector: • For the residential energy sector, the compounded annual population growth rate was calculated from 2005 through 2020 using population projections from Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG). • For the commercial energy sector, the City of Redwood City relied on the analysis contained within "California Energy Demand 2008-2018: Staff Revised Forecast,"10 a report by the California Energy Commission (CEC), which shows that commercial floor space and the number of jobs have closely tracked the growth in energy use in the commercial sector. Using regional job projections for City of Redwood City from ABAG's 10 http://www.enerqv.ca.qov/2007publications/CEC-200-2007-015/CEC-200-2007-015-SF2.PDF 39