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� � � __._. _ -�v I�.I Table 2: Demand Projections(MGD)from Key Documents � • 1 1 � . ; . �' � � • '�• � • . � 1 ♦ - • '�• 1 � 2015 10.2 9.8 - 2030 10.7 9.2 - 2040 - 9.4 11.9 If requested, EKI will work with the City to ensure consistency between the DSS Model projections, the 2015 UWMP, and other key documents (e.g., drought reporting to the State Water Regional Control Board ["SWRCB"]). EKI is aware that BAWSCA just completed a regional effort to model all of the member agencies' 2040 demand and conservation projections using the DSS Model as part of the BAWSCA Regiona! Demand and Conservation Projections Project ("BAWSCA Project"). If those demand projections do not reflect recent demand cutbacks, offsets from increased recycled water usage, or are inconsistent with other key documents, EKI would recommend that the City modify the DSS Model or use an alternative method to ensure the most accurate results. EKI has used the DSS Model extensively in its work for other BAWSCA agencies, including as part of the most recent round of demand estimations and is well-positioned to support the City in review and update of its DSS Model,if needed. Surface Water Suaplv Reliabilitv Mav be Chan�in� Currently, the City receives all of its potable water supply from the City and County of San Francisco ("CCSF") via the Hetch-Hetchy Regional Water System ("RWS"�. The City has an Individual Supply Guarantee ("ISG"), of 10.93 million gallons per day ("MGD") that survives in perpetuity, as documented in its 2009 Water Supply Agreement with the CCSF. Given that the City has a single potable water supply source,the City is vulnerable to drought shortfalls on the RWS via the application of the Tier 1�er 2 drought allocation process. Historically, the RWS supplies have been very reliable. However, the current historic drought, potential interferences by the SWRCB, the resolution of the Federal Energy Regufatory Commission ("FERC") process for New Don Pedro, and the delayed completion of the Water System Improvement Program ("WSIP"), have increased the vulnerability of the RWS, even as climate change may be increasing the future frequency and magnitude of droughts. The SFPUC is not projected to release updated long-term reliability projections to the BAWSCA agencies until late 2015 or early 2016; the results of which could significantly impact the City's dry year supply portfolio and will have to be addressed in the 2015 UWMP update. Page (13 __..._._____—.�.____._..__._ .____.___._.__._...._._......._.--_,__�__..___ Redwoad tlty Publfc Works Services Department 2015 UWMP (EKI BS-078) ATTY/AGR.2015248/EKI -Development of 2015 Urban Water Management Plan