AgdaPkt 2017-05-08 Special - Laserfiche WebLink

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and office space, agricultural land use, and retail demand shifting toward the cannabis supply chain. The election of Donald Trump as president may affect local labor-force availability, port activity, and perhaps current health-care systems and the number of residents that have private or public insurance. The extent to which the new presidency affects the Redwood City economy in 2017 and beyond is discussed when relevant throughout the 2016 Index report; one major concern volatility in equity markets and interest rates, which act as context for personal income growth for county residents. Most of the variables to be forecasted follow a cycle, or move up and down over time based on economic cycles, basically supply and demand. That cyclic movement is also incorporated into the forecasts, as it is dictated by the state and national economic cycles, but perhaps also by global events. The forecast horizon is 2016 to 2021, because some variables that determine the forecast are not completely known yet for 2016, specifically employment. For the tax revenue forecasts, these are for Fiscal Years 2016-17 to 2020-21. Sales Tax Revenue Forecasting sales tax revenues depends on movements in two basic data points: taxable sales and the local tax rate. The local tax rate depends on state-level policies primarily, but also on local tax initiatives. There is currently a maximum of ten (10) percent in California on sales tax. As of January 1, 2017, the sales tax rate for Redwood City is 8.75 percent, where the County of San Mateo is also 8.75 percent, where South San Francisco and the city of San Mateo are 9.0 percent. We assume that sales tax rates remain the same over the forecast horizon (2017 to 2021). Regardless of any changes, the 8.75 percent rate incorporates the current setting. Taxable sales forecasts combine elements of three variables: (1) Population growth (which drives taxable sales demand); (2) Retail/Taxable sales as a proportion of consumer expenditures (a reflec- tion of how much is spent on taxable items per person); (3) Personal income per person (a reflection of how much there is to spend); and (4) the percentage of retail sales that are taxable. Figure 42:Underlying Forecast Values 100.0 123.7 100.0 124.0 6080100120Index = 100 in 20152000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year: Forecast Window - 2017 to 2021 Personal Income in San Mateo County - Actual Personal Income in San Mateo County - Forecast Redwood City Taxable Sales - Actual Redwood City Taxable Sales - Forecast Figure 43:Sales Taxes in Redwood City 23.5 28.9 15202530Millions of Dollars2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Year: Forecast Window - 2017 to 2021 Redwood City Sales Taxes - Actual Redwood City Sales Taxes - Forecast After examining the available data, the California Department of Finance forecast for California per- sonal income growth was used as the basis for Redwood City’s sales tax forecast. The movement 25