AgdaPkt 2017-05-08 Special - Laserfiche WebLink

Browse Search

Table 6. Sales Tax Forecast (Dollars) Forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Sales Taxes 23,513,420 24,328,570 25,390,794 26,518,054 27,681,040 28,895,030 Source: City of Redwood City, California Board of Equalization, and CA Department of Finance of personal income in San Mateo County from 2002 to 2015 follows the movement of personal in- come in California very closely, and based on the state economy acting as context for all counties in California, we use that forecast to shape taxable sales. Notice in the figure that taxable sales, indexed to 2015 values, were above personal income during the last decade, and below since the recent recession (visible in the drop-off in the figure). The percentage change in taxable sales is likely to follow personal income (the income where taxable consumption expenditures originate) and the forecast above shows this movement. Property Tax Revenue Forecasting property taxes is a combination of residential and commercial real estate assessed values. The property tax, based on local tax initiatives and Proposition 13 allowances, is then assessed. We use 1.0 percent as the base tax rate for Redwood City. Special assessments may come and go based on bond issues and other, local taxes voted in by local residents. Variables that help determine the forecast are as follows: Commercial: 1.Current inventory (from Cushman Wakefield); 2.Inventory under construction (permits data provided by the City of Redwood City); and 3.Capitalization rates (from Cushman Wakefield). Residential: 1.Housing Units (from Department of Finance estimates); 2.Building permits (from the City of Redwood City); 3.Median home prices for all homes (from Zillow Research); 4.Interest rate forecasts (from the Federal Reserve); and 5.Volume of Sales of all homes (from Zillow Research) for all municipalities in San Mateo County. On the commercial side, San Mateo County has approximately 826,000 square feet of office space under construction as of Q3 2016, according to Cushman/Wakefield.1 In Redwood City, there is no industrial space under construction; of the 826,000 square feet, Redwood City has about 77,000. With an inventory of 6.6 million feet, sales pricing should change very little based on this new inventory versus demand. We assume here, based on the slow movement in commercial space and reassessments, that property tax revenue changes are driven by building permits overall. Data from 2005 to 2016 sug- gest that the volume of building permits pulled in California and in Redwood City follow each other 1 http://www.colliers.com/en-us/redwoodcity/insights/research 26