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closely. Further, the California Department of Finance has estimated statewide permits for residen- <br />tial and commercial property through 2020. Using that forecast, the percent ascension in property <br />taxes follows a forecasted percent ascension in Redwood City permits volume, which follows the <br />stateside data less one percent growth. The expectation is that Redwood City would see slower <br />permit growth than the state overall. The figures show these relationships and the table shows the <br />forecasted for property tax revenues. By assuming slower growth in permits than the state overall, <br />forecasted property taxes are at a conservative volume. <br />There can also be assessment changes based on renovations and re-assessment through permit- <br />ting processes. Due to the mix of an unknown renovation market and the number of owners that <br />may improve their property without reporting it for re-assessment, variables such as construction <br />employment are not necessarily informative beyond what would be captured naturally in the vari- <br />ables above. We assume the ascension of interest rates is slow and predictable through 2021 as <br />to not distort market activity otherwise. <br />Figure 44:Annual Change in Property Taxes, <br />Turnover, and Home Prices <br />7.8 <br />7.6 <br />0.3 <br />0.1 <br />-.5 <br />0 <br />.5 <br />1 <br />Percent Change-10 <br />0 <br />10 <br />20 <br />Percent Change2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 <br />Year: Forecast Window - 2017 to 2021 <br />Property Taxes - Actual <br />Property Taxes - Forecast <br />Turnover and Median Price Change - Actual <br />Turnover and Median Price Change - Forecast <br />Figure 45:Property Taxes in Redwood City <br />48.0 <br />64.8 <br />3040506070Millions of Dollars2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 <br />Year: Forecast Window - 2017 to 2021 <br />Redwood City Property Taxes - Actual <br />Redwood City Property Taxes - Forecast <br />Table 7. Property Tax Forecast (Dollars) <br />Forecast <br />2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 <br />Property Taxes 48,033,488 51,169,804 55,892,084 57,711,808 60,980,412 64,813,440 <br />Source: City of Redwood City, California Board of Equalization, and CA Department of Finance <br />Transient Occupancy Tax (TOT) <br />This tax is basically a sales tax for hotel rooms, and depends on visitor volume. Visitors come in <br />two flavors: business and leisure. Forecasts for business visitors depend on the global reach of <br />local businesses and how travel versus technology is utilized for meetings. Leisure travel depends <br />on four major factors: <br />1.Regional tourism forecasts of visitors and of personal income; <br />2.Occupancy rates of hotel rooms; <br />3.The percentage of visitor days that becomes overnight stays; and <br />4.The number of hotel rooms and those under construction. <br />27