Laserfiche WebLink
We assume that the TOT rate itself is not a factor in the choice of where to stay, but is a factor in <br />the choice to convert to an overnight stay from a day trip. The Bay Area is a draw for worldwide <br />visitors, but also for regional visitors. A recent report by Tourism Economics suggested that over <br />70 percent of California visitors originate in California.2 Their forecast suggests visitor growth in <br />California is approximately 2.2 percent per year through 2020. <br />Visitor growth alone does not generate growth of TOT revenues. If visitors only came for the day <br />and never stayed overnight, TOT revenue would be zero. Tourism Economics expects the growth of <br />overnight stays to be about 2.1 percent per year through 2020. We extend that to 2021 here. <br />The forecasted growth from 2016 is for 4 percent per year on average through 2021. This is basi- <br />cally two times the Tourism Economics visitor growth rate for the state. This assumption is based <br />on three ideas: <br />1.Visitor growth is forecasted to continue; <br />2.There is no recession currently predicted for the national or state economies, which suggests <br />domestic demand for travel is unlikely to wane between 2017 and 2021; and <br />3.Average daily rates are likely to rise faster than 2.1 percent per year as demand continues to <br />rise. <br />Figure 46:Transient Occupancy Taxes in Red- <br />wood City <br />6.5 <br />7.8 <br />2 <br />4 <br />6 <br />8 <br />Millions of Dollars2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 <br />Year: Forecast Window - 2017 to 2021 <br />Redwood City TOT Taxes - Actual <br />Redwood City TOT Taxes - Forecast <br />Table 8. Transient Occupancy Tax Forecast (Dollars) <br />Forecast <br />2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 <br />Property Taxes 6,451,477 6,677,278 6,961,063 7,274,311 7,547,098 7,848,982 <br />Source: City of Redwood City, California Board of Equalization, and CA Department of Finance <br />Employment Forecast <br />An employment forecast for any city or county is generally a function of its employment history <br />against the state or national forecast. Because the mix of industries are similar in Redwood City to <br />San Mateo County and to California overall, how the broader economy trends go creates the basis <br />2 https://industry.visitcalifornia.com/media/uploads/files/editor/CA%20Forecast%20September%202016%20-Final.pdf <br />28