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AgdaPkt 2017-05-08 Special
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AgdaPkt 2017-05-08 Special
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5/11/2017 8:30:17 AM
Creation date
5/4/2017 3:47:47 PM
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CC Index
CC Index - Document Type
Agenda Packet
Meeting Type
Special
Agency Type
City Council
Date
5/8/2017
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of a forecast for jobs. However, if there are some growth industries identified that are unique to San <br />Mateo County, this can make jobs more volatile upward or downward depending on the economic <br />cycle. <br />We assume that one strength for San Mateo County is in life sciences, specifically in the northern <br />portion of the County. The southern portion, where Redwood City is, may be more like the Santa <br />Clara County economy in terms of economic cycles. Unfortunately, data for the city economy and <br />jobs does not provide a lot of detail other than industry sectors. Thus the forecast elements for local <br />employment are: <br />1.Recent employment (employment is cyclic and based on local employment in previous years); <br />2.Regional employment (the local area may lead or lag county employment historically); <br />3.State employment forecasts, and how regional employment has led or lagged behind specif- <br />ically the state economy; and <br />4.Local specialties or legislation that may enhance or restrict hiring. <br />For example, the minimum wage legislation that is now statewide may slow down local forecasts <br />for San Francisco because surrounding areas are now ascending minimum wages in a more com- <br />petitive manner (assuming higher wages in San Francisco provided an incentive for Redwood City <br />residents to commute). However, we use the current DOF forecast as the basis of the employment <br />forecast, with recent cyclic behavior of employment as a way to add or subtract from the state-level <br />forecast. <br />Employment is a regional phenomenon. Cities and counties share their residents among their em- <br />ployers. Redwood City is no different. The non-farm employment level in Redwood City is officially <br />stated as of February 2017 by the Census Bureau as 56,150 workers in 2014. These are the latest <br />data. However, the California Employment Development Department (EDD) estimates that Red- <br />wood City had 46,810 working residents in 2016. This suggests that Redwood City imports workers <br />to satiate the needs of local employers. <br />The forecast here is for non-farm employment at Redwood City employers, regardless of where <br />the workers live. San Mateo County has official data estimates from EDD through 2015. Between <br />2002 and 2014, Redwood City was between 14.2 and 15.5 percent of the County total. San Mateo <br />employment is now forecasted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and EDD through 2024. We <br />use this trajectory for San Mateo County as a way to guide a forecast for Redwood City employ- <br />ment. <br />29
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