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<br /> <br />The Effects of a $15 Minimum Wage by 2019 in Santa Clara County and San Jose 42 <br /> <br />Table 10. Scenario A: Cumulative net changes in employment in San Jose <br /> Impacts in San Jose <br />Additional impact in <br />the rest of Santa Clara <br />County & nine nearby <br />counties <br />Total impact of a $15 <br />MW increase in San <br />Jose, the rest of Santa <br />Clara County and nine <br />nearby counties <br />A. Cumulative reduction in wage bill due to capital-labor substitution and productivity gains <br /> Reduction in number of jobs from substitution <br />effects and productivity gains -1,190 n.a. -1,190 <br />B. Scale effect: Cumulative reduction in consumer spending <br /> Reduction in consumer spending from price <br />increase (millions) -$107 n.a. n.a. <br /> Reduction in number of jobs due to the scale <br />effect -580 n.a. n.a. <br /> Reduction in GDP due to the scale effect <br />(millions) -$64 n.a. n.a. <br />C. Income effect: Cumulative increase in consumer demand <br /> Aggregate increase in consumer spending <br />(millions) $204 +$101 $305 <br /> Increase in number of jobs due to the income <br />effect 800 +890 1,690 <br /> Increase in GDP due to the income effect $92 +$105 $197 <br />D. Cumulative net change in employment <br /> Net change in employment -960 +880 -80 <br /> Net change in employment, as a percent of <br />total employment -0.3% +0.3% 0.0% <br /> Net change in GDP (millions) $25 +$105 $130 <br /> Net change in GDP, as a percent of total GDP 0.0% +0.1% 0.1% <br />Source: Authors’ calculations using the regional economic impact model IMPLAN. <br />Note: The nine nearby counties taken into account are: Alameda, San Mateo, San Francisco, Santa Cruz, Monterey, San Benito, <br />Contra Costa, San Joaquin, and Merced. All estimates are in 2019 dollars. <br /> <br />8.A. - Page 56