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AgdaPkt 2005-10-24
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AgdaPkt 2005-10-24
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10/25/2005 11:12:23 AM
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10/20/2005 2:57:35 PM
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Agenda Packet
Date
10/24/2005
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<br />CB RICHARD ELLIS CONSULTING <br />Sedway Group <br /> <br />$/7 <br />CBRE <br /> <br />CB RICHARD ELLIS <br /> <br />Mr. Larry Carr <br />September 15, 2005 <br />Page 5 <br /> <br />command constant rents and operating costs, since the space itself remains the same. CBRE <br />Consulting believes that, given the high levels of R&D space available in the San Francisco Peninsula <br />and Silicon Valley markets, and the tendency of these tenants to prefer a critical mass of like users <br />and competitive rents for more traditional, tilt-up, two story space, that it would take longer to fill the <br />subject property with an R&D tenant versus a traditional office tenant. Consequently, CBRE <br />Consulting does not anticipate market-based occupancy of the property for an R&D tenant until <br />2012. Consistent with standard R&D market assumptions, the space is assumed to be 90 percent <br />occupied at this time. <br /> <br />Property Assessed Valuation. Given its vacant status, CBRE Consulting believes the property is <br />currently overvalued at $63.9 million. Therefore, the analysis assumes the property will be <br />reassessed at a lower value, at least consistent with prevailing market rents. Because the space itself <br />remains the same whether it is R&D or office, we do not expect a material change in rents if the <br />subject property were to be marketed to an R&D user versus a more traditional office tenant. Based <br />upon the office market overview, CBRE Consulting projects that these rents will be $22.20 per year <br />in 2006, the beginning year of the discounted General Fund revenue analysis.4 At this rent level, less <br />an assumption for operating expenses and vacancy allowance, the property would be valued at <br />$41. 7 million (see Exhibit 8). This value estimate assumes an investment grade capitalization rate of <br />7.0 percent, which would likely be used by the County Assessor for this purpose. It is assumed the <br />property will be sold or reassessed again in 2012, when it achieves stabilized occupancy. The <br />presumed market rent at this time is estimated at $28.40 per year. Net of operating expenses and <br />the vacancy allowance, this translates into a value of $51.6 million, assuming a higher 8.5 percent <br />market capitalization rate. The higher capitalization rate reflects terminal cap rates used currently by <br />institutional investors. In the years between the two assumed revaluations, and after the 2012 <br />property revaluation, the value is assumed to increase 2.0 percent per year pursuant to the <br />provisions of Proposition 13. <br /> <br />Other Relevant Assumptions. Other assumptions relevant to the R&D tenant include the following: <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />a standard employment density of 250 square feet, used to derive the estimated number of <br />office employees working at the complex; <br />a tenant improvement allowance equivalent to $15.00 per square foot (of which $7.50 per <br />square foot is taxable) in 2005, based on market comparables; <br />an R&D user annual electricity rate of $4.11 per square foot (in 2005), based on information <br />reported by Stanford Hospital and Clinics for equivalent office space; and <br />an R&D user annual gas rate of $0.62 per square foot (in 2005), based on information reported <br />by Stanford Hospital and Clinics for equivalent office space. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />. <br /> <br />These assumptions are all considered conservative and are documented in Exhibit 3, which contains <br />general assumptions relative to the traditional office tenant as well as Stanford Hospital and Clinics. <br /> <br />4 Class A R&D space in Central San Mateo County typically leases at lower rates; as of September 2005, full <br />service R&D rents for quality space in this area averaged $1.50 to $1.65 per square foot (assuming expenses <br />ranging from $0.40 to $0.50 per square foot). Operating expenses in R&D properties are significantly lower <br />than those for office buildings. T.l.s, too, were estimated at a slightly lower $10 to $15 per square foot. It is <br />likely that, to successfully attract an R&D tenant, subject property lease rates would have to be competitive <br />with market rents, although operating expenses will necessarily remain the same. T.l.s will vary significantly <br />depending on the type of tenant. <br />
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