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9.A. - Page 7 of 21 <br />The chart below depicts estimated total General Fund revenue using the "U" shaped recession scenario, <br />the "V" shaped recession scenario, and the "L" shaped recession scenario. <br />$215.0 <br />$205.0 <br />$195.0 <br />$185.0 <br />$175.0 <br />$165.0 <br />$155.0 <br />Recession Scenarios <br />Total General Fund Revenue <br />(in millions) <br />$145.0 <br />'y°� la 1y1y 11, ti's ,ya 1yti ti� 11,1 11, 1; 1 <br />,yo tiS tiff ,yP7 /yo� ti`' tiV ,y1' y4 1y� <br />�C�11a rya ��tia �C�11a rya ��,1D �C�11a �y4 ��,10 1ya y4 AT <br />"U" Shaped N" Shaped 'T" Shaped <br />The only economic certainty over the next 1-2 years is that almost everything is uncertain. In the short <br />run, it appears that social distancing measures will be kept in place in some form for large gatherings, <br />hotels, restaurants, and retail stores. It will likely be months, if not longer, before international travel <br />resumes in a normal manner, and business travel may never return to pre-COVID-19 levels, due to the <br />ease and functionality of virtual meetings and the quick adaptation by most businesses. <br />Staff anticipates that consumer confidence and consumer shopping habits will also be altered for a <br />significant amount of time. Considering this, staff is estimating sales tax and transient occupancy tax <br />revenues to be negatively affected in FY 2020-21 and possibly longer. <br />Property tax is the top revenue source for City operations. No adjustment has been made to anticipated <br />property tax revenue for FY 2020-21, and property tax revenues typically change slowly, even in <br />recessions. The strength of the City's property tax base is rooted in the abundance of high -paying jobs in <br />the region and the desirability of the City as a location for employers. Looking forward, it is unclear <br />whether major employers in the region will modify their work practices in a way that would reduce <br />concentrations of employees. If they do, this change could affect demand for existing and new office space <br />and reduce customers for the City's previously -thriving downtown restaurant scene. <br />Page 7 of 20 <br />City of Redwood City 1017 Middlefield Road, Redwood City, CA. 94063 Tel: 650-780-7000 www.redwoodcity.ore <br />