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8.A. - Page 30 of 104 <br />CNN Business has partnered with Moody's Analytics to create a "Back -to -Normal" Index for the national <br />economy and each state. Despite California's status as one of only a handful of states in which the <br />housing sector did not soften in the early months of the pandemic, it still trails behind the nation in <br />terms of recovery rate. This is likely due in part to the larger number of COVID-19 cases in California and <br />associated reduction in economic activity. <br />Calitornia vs. United States <br />O calibmia a united States <br />lOC� <br />— �'� - 81.2% <br />m <br />lJn•�65Trzes <br />- <br />CafAcmia <br />Z <br />0 <br />z <br />k <br />07 <br />Apr Al", Jun <br />Mo�ith <br />Oct <br />Economic analysts identify the fiscal challenges of state and local governments as a significant drag on <br />the nation's economic recovery. While the federal government continues to borrow (the Congressional <br />Budget Office has warned that the federal debt in 2021 will exceed the size of the entire U.S. economy; <br />this hasn't occurred since World War II), state and local governments must pass balanced budgets each <br />year. In late June, Moody's Analytics estimated the absence of additional federal aid to state and local <br />governments, "could shave as much as 3 full percentage points for real GDP and erase about 4 million <br />jobs." The absence of further federal stimulus support has required state and local jurisdictions to <br />reduce budgets at a time when residents are increasingly in need of government assistance. <br />Government sector, 2019=900 <br />—All government — Federal —State and local <br />710 <br />i <br />700 <br />90 <br />So <br />i <br />70 <br />History Fore•r �=.s� <br />60 <br />1995 2009 zoos 2010 2015 2020 2025 <br />sor,r«_ [7aloitte analysis_ <br />BUDGET MESSAGE 399 <br />