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2021 Multijurisdictional Local Hazard Mitigation Plan 4.3.4 Development Trends An understanding of population and development trends can assist in planning for future development and ensuring that appropriate mitigation, planning, and preparedness measures are in place to protect human health and community infrastructure. The Disaster Mitigation Act requires that communities consider land use trends, which can alter the need for, and priority of, mitigation options over time. Land use and development trends significantly affect exposure and vulnerability to various hazards. For example, significant development in a hazard area increases the building stock and population exposed to that hazard. New development that has occurred in the last five years and potential future development in the next five years, as identified by each jurisdiction, are addressed in the jurisdictional annexes in Volume 2 of this plan. This section describes general countywide trends. Areas targeted for future growth and development have been identified across the county. According to the Association of Bay Area Governments (ABAG), the County of San Mateo is expected to grow considerably in the next 10 years, with an estimated population of 862,800 by 2030—a 10 percent increase from the current population. Significant residential and non-residential development are expected, with increasing establishment of technology companies throughout the County likely in the near future. While coastal communities will experience some degree of future exposure based on anticipated land use, most of the future impact will be in the bayside communities. On May 20, 2021, the ABAG Executive Board approved the Final Regional Housing Needs Allocation Methodology and Draft Allocations. The current housing allocation for the 21 listed jurisdictions in San Mateo County (including the unincorporated areas) is 47,687 housing units. Very low income and above moderate- income housing types make up a sizeable portion of this allocation (ABAG, 2021). All cities and the County are currently updating their housing elements. This will assess housing needs from 2023 to 2031 and establish policies and programs to address them. the housing element must also demonstrate that the unincorporated County has sites that can be developed or redeveloped to meet the County’s regional housing needs allocation. In fiscal year 2019-20, the County’s Planning and Building Department processed 2,294 building permits, barely less than its goal of 2,300, despite almost two months of mandated closure due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Most of these permits were obtained via the new online permit center. The department estimates that the total number of building permits to be issued in fiscal year 2020-21 will be close to the target of 2,300. The current County budget includes significant continued spending on capital projects, including the San Mateo Medical Center, County Office Building 3, Pescadero Fire Station 59, Tower Road Fire Station 17 replacements, and Memorial Park Facility Improvements. Each municipal planning partner to this plan has performed a building permit assessment for the performance period since the 2016 plan. These assessments are included in Volume 2 of this plan. Development in San Mateo County will likely be impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic over the next few years. The current County budget reflects $6.3 billion over the next two years for ongoing efforts against COVID-19, including the administration of vaccines, prevention and mitigation measures, and recovery programs to help people, businesses, and community organizations. As multiple sectors recover from the pandemic, San Mateo County will need to address housing concerns for those who are experiencing homelessness. The current budget reflects the acquisition of hotels and the building of a navigation center to house those experiencing homelessness. 4-12