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REV: 06-16-2021 EV & MI Task 3 – Zone/Scenario Testing and Evacuation Time Estimates (ETEs) For each emergency event, identified in Task 1, Consultant will coordinate with City staff to identify potential key factors for consideration, including: forecasted number of vehicles (including autos, bicycle, motorcycles, and boats) required to evacuate the Study Area, projected time of day and day of week of an evacuation, identified evacuation zones within the Study Area, notification times, and available evacuation routes. Consultant anticipates that City staff will include emergency response personnel and the City Engineer/Traffic Engineer to provide input on the key factors listed above that will influence ETEs. The results above will be used to “test” their scalability in the Study Area (e.g., how does evacuation time vary by location within the Study Area), including potential evacuation events that could occur in the City by calculating the congested travel time. Given that there is an infinite number of events that could occur, Consultant will work with the City to assess the key considerations for up to five general categories of evacuation events. Projected travel time will be calculated using dynamic traffic assignment considering notification and departure time, queues (and related delay), and travel time for pedestrians, bicyclists, autos, motorcycles, and boats throughout the evacuation route. The distribution of travel time, percentage of vehicles or people evacuated, and average travel time for each evacuation zone will be estimated. To determine the relative change in evacuation times in the Study Area, Consultant will compare the following study scenarios: Without Project (baseline) Conditions With Project (future) Conditions Project Team will coordinate with City staff to confirm the land use, population and transportation network inputs for the Without Project (baseline) Conditions and With Project (future) Conditions. The project description will include the proposed developments located at 505 E. Bayshore Road and 557 E. Bayshore Road. Task 4 – Recommendations Project Team will develop recommendations for the likely emergency events (up to five events) requiring an evacuation focusing on potential circulation constraints, possible mitigation measures and capacity issues to improve ETEs. This could include improved emergency response time, increased notifications, evacuation drills for residents, and/or improved infrastructure to assist with evacuation (e.g., improved roadway network ATTY/AGR.2021.142/Fehr & Peers (Page 13 of 16)